Question
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
Total Forecasters68
Community Prediction
27 Jun 2026
(08 May 2025 - 25 Oct 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 08 May 2025 | — |
| median | 27 Jun 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 25 Oct 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 19.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2020
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2020