Question

When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?

Total Forecasters68
Community Prediction
27 Jun 2026
(08 May 2025 - 25 Oct 2028)

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CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%08 May 2025
median27 Jun 2026
upper 75%25 Oct 2028
Upper bound
>01 Jan 203019.4%
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2020