Question
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction
1.28 years
(1.07 years - 2.2 years)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 1.067 | — |
| median | 1.278 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.202 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100 | 1.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 7, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:May 9, 2020
Authors:
Opened:May 7, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:May 9, 2020
