What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?
This question will resolve as the average annual return on global stocks for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (including dividends). The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.
"Annual return" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the World Bank, or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.