Question
As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
Resolved:Jun 2030Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction
May 2035
(May 2031 - Oct 2040)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <21 Jul 2023 | 3.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | May 2031 | — |
| median | May 2035 | — |
| upper 75% | Oct 2040 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2110 | 1.1% | — |
What was the final result?Jun 2030
Community Baseline Score
26.2
Community Peer Score
16.5
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
03 Feb 2027
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Jul 2033
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
03 Feb 2027
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Jul 2033
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16