Question
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?
Total Forecasters86
Community Prediction
27 Jun 2027
(05 Oct 2025 - Nov 2031)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <30 Sep 2021 | 0.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 05 Oct 2025 | — |
| median | 27 Jun 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2031 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2049 | 12.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 20, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 22, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Jul 20, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 22, 2020