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What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?

Stripe, a financial-services company, committed last year to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.

They recently wrote up a summary of their first set of these purchases.

This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.

Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.

This question asks:

On 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?

This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.

If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.

If Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.

If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

*As judged by a metaculus admin.


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