Question
When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?
Resolved:30 Dec 2020 01:30Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction
11 Mar 2021
(26 Dec 2020 09:39 - 28 Jun 2021)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 26 Dec 2020 09:39 | — |
| median | 11 Mar 2021 | — |
| upper 75% | 28 Jun 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >21 Jul 2024 | 0.4% | — |
What was the final result?30 Dec 2020 01:30
Community Peer Score
46.6
Authors:
Opened:Aug 6, 2020
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolves:Dec 30, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2020
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
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27 Nov 2025
Authors:
Opened:Aug 6, 2020
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolves:Dec 30, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2020
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
59.2
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
27 Nov 2025