630 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
May 2033
Top Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Impact
later
Strength
3 votes
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Impact
Earlier
Strength
4 votes
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
Impact
later
Strength
4 votes
Strong regulation of AI companies by US government
Impact
Earlier
Strength
45 votes
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Impact
Earlier
Strength
2 votes
China starts a war with Taiwan
Impact
Earlier
Strength
76 votes
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Impact
later
Strength
4 votes
AI CEOs realize theres no reason to race when all fellow racers are moral people who can cooperate to save the world
Impact
Earlier
Strength
3 votes
Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047)
Impact
later
Strength
3 votes