Question

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

198

594 comments594

Total Forecasters1696

Community Prediction

Aug 2033

(15 Jun 2028 - Jan 2045)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199
community	15 Jun 2028	Aug 2033	Jan 2045	1.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	15 Jun 2028	—
median	Aug 2033	—
upper 75%	Jan 2045	—
Upper bound
>2199	1.4%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

The Singularity Is Here

Psychology Today•Jun 29, 2025

OpenAI and Microsoft are dueling over AGI. These real-world tests will prove when AI is really better than humans.

Business Insider•Jun 29, 2025

OpenAI’s Unreleased AGI Paper Could Complicate Microsoft Negotiations

Wired•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

07 Feb 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

The Singularity Is Here

Psychology Today•Jun 29, 2025

OpenAI and Microsoft are dueling over AGI. These real-world tests will prove when AI is really better than humans.

Business Insider•Jun 29, 2025

OpenAI’s Unreleased AGI Paper Could Complicate Microsoft Negotiations

Wired•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

07 Feb 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030