Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1705
Community Prediction
May 2031
(11 May 2027 - Sep 2039)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 11 May 2027 | — |
| median | May 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | Sep 2039 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 2.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020