Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1731
Community Prediction
Jul 2032
(29 Dec 2027 - Apr 2042)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 29 Dec 2027 | — |
| median | Jul 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2042 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 1.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch