653
1.9k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Dec 2032
Top Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Hastens
AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing
Delays
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Hastens
Strong regulation of AI companies by US government
Hastens
China starts a war with Taiwan
Hastens
Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047)
Delays
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
Delays
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Delays
AI CEOs realize theres no reason to race when all fellow racers are moral people who can cooperate to save the world
Hastens