629 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
02 Oct 2027
(12 Apr 2026 - Jun 2031)
02 Oct 2027
(12 Apr 2026 - Jun 2031)
1.7k forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Jan 2031
(10 Sep 2026 - Mar 2040)
Jan 2031
(10 Sep 2026 - Mar 2040)
182 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
413