39 comments
114 forecasters
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Current estimate
Jan 2055
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 30, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2201
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 1, 2020
When will we have transformative AI?
May 2042
(Apr 2031 - Jan 2069)
May 2042
(Apr 2031 - Jan 2069)
163 forecasters
In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?
Aug 2073
(Apr 2038 - 2175)
Aug 2073
(Apr 2038 - 2175)
40 forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
65 forecasters