Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?
As detailed in this collection, Elon musk has a lot going on. In addition to being CEO of Tesla, he:
- Is CEO of SpaceX;
- Heads the "Boring company" digging tunnels for traffic and/or Hyperloop;
- Provides some level of indirect support to Hyperloop;
- Co-founded and oversees "Neuralink," an effort toward direct brain interfaces;
- Involved in AI through OpenAI (as cofounder) and other initiatives (e.g. funding Future of Life Institute);
- Plays some role in SolarCity (now owned by Tesla).
This must be very tiring. Back in 2013, Musk said that he would remain with Tesla through the successful launch of the model 3. This is now (largely) done, with Tesla's primary problem being producing enough vehicles to meet demand. An engineer at heart, will Musk really stay interested enough in building Tesla out as a car company to remain CEO?
SpaceX, on the other hand, is in much more flux, with a number of projects appearing and disappearing regularly. Less time at Tesla could allow him a lot more focus on SpaceX and other endeavors that might be more fun than ramping up production facilities. So we'll ask:
Will Elon Musk step down as CEO by Tesla prior to Sept. 1, 2018?
Resolution is by credible media report.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.