The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered "administered" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.