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Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?
Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.
We can use Google trends to analyze the interest in a topic over time. We are going to use the trend in interest in the Topic of Veganism for this question. (Be careful to differentiate between the 'Topic' and 'Search Term', as Google makes a distinction between the two.)
In order to get a question that resolves in the not all to distant future, it is asked:
Will the month with the highest interest in Veganism in 2018 have a interest at least 25% greater than that of the month with the highest interest in 2017?
The question resolves positive, if the highest peak (a datapoint represents the average interest over a month) before 2018 (note that this could be November or December 2017) on the 2004 - present graph gets reduced to a value of 80 or less (100/80=1.25) by a month (peak) with complete data in 2018.
The earliest possible resolution time should be 2018-02-01, and the last possible resolution time will be 2019-01-01.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.