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Date Next Human Lands on Earth's Moon


In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.

Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and (as of February 2018) no human being has walked on the Moon since.

When will the next human being walk on the Moon?

This question will resolve on the date and time (UTC) when the next human has set foot on Earth's moon. If this feat has not occurred between January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.

By "human", we mean for the purposes of this question a biological human who could reproduce healthy children with a 2018-era human being (ie. excluding emulated consciousnesses, significantly genetically engineered humans, or artificial intelligences).

Industry – Space

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Metaculus help: Predicting

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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

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