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Will EVE Online die by 2020?
Back in 2003, the Xbox, Playstation 2, and GameCube still reigned supreme as gaming platforms. Top games of the year included The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker and Grand Theft Auto: Vice City.
Also launched that year was a multiplayer science fiction game called EVE Online in which players represent one of five factions battling for control of space colonies in New Eden, a region of space long ago cut off from Earth. Subscribers use real-world currency to purchase playing time and in-game items.
The game grew over time, reaching 200,000 subscribers in 2008 and 500,000 in 2013. One of the game's most significant events occurred in 2014 with a massive battle over control of the B-R5RB system. More than 7,500 players participated in the battle, with losses estimated around $300,000 of in-game resources.
Since that battle, however, subscriber activity has been generally declining. Financial reports for 2016 suggested a drop in subscriber numbers to 2009 levels. Activity on the game's Tranquility server suggests, as of June 2017, a drop in player activity to 2006 levels.
Reasons for the drop are debated but likely include a mix of rule changes within the game environment combined with external pressures such as the presence of other similar games, an aging player base, and the lack of a "wow" moment for the game.
Will EVE Online cease operations by the end of 2019?
This question will resolve as positive if EVE Online is no longer available to play as a MMORPG on December 31, 2019.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.