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9 comments
75 forecasters

When will a 1M-population country adopt Universal Basic Income?

Latest estimate
Dec 2036
Authors:
casens
Opened:Mar 17, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 19, 2021
Politics
Economy & Business
Business Insider logo
Lawmakers float a nationwide basic income experiment that would cover the cost of a 2-bedroom apartment
Business Insider•Oct 27, 2025
Business Insider logo
Ireland plans to make a $1,500 a month basic income for artists permanent
Business Insider•Oct 19, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?

5% chance
60

Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?

23% chance
56

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

20% chance
81
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