9 comments
75 forecasters
When will a 1M-population country adopt Universal Basic Income?
Latest estimate
Dec 2036
Authors:
Opened:Mar 17, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 19, 2021
Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?
5% chance
60
Before 2031, will a G7 country have an active, publicly-funded UBI pilot program covering at least 25,000 people?
23% chance
56
Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?
20% chance
81