Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Date of US Approval on Cultivated Meat

Feeding Humanity Alt-Protein Tournament


Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.

Cultivated meat is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. However, before cultivated meat can come to market, a regulatory framework must be in place.

According to the Good Food Institute's 2019 State of the Industry Report:

In March [2019], the USDA and FDA released a formal agreement outlining regulatory roles that leverage each agency’s expertise—the FDA will oversee the earlier stages of cultivated meat production, and the USDA will oversee the later stages.

Vox's Kelsey Piper goes on to explain:

Basically, regulation of meat involves both agencies — the USDA overlooking food processing, labeling, and distribution, and the FDA conducting inspections and safety checks — and the regulation of cell-based meat will, too. This agreement outlines which problems are the jurisdiction of which agency, so they can develop further guidelines without stepping on each others’ toes.

When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved for sale in the US?

This question will resolve as the first date when at least 5 separate cultivated meat products are approved by federal regulators for commercial sale anywhere in the United States.

  • Positive resolution requires regulatory approval but it does not require the relevant products be for sale

  • Positive resolution does not require all the relevant products to be labelled as cell-based meat

  • Separate cultivated meat products are those belonging to different product lines (i.e. are sold under different brand names), but may be produced by the same company. For example XYZ's "clean chicken nuggets V1.0" and XYZ's "clean chicken nuggets V1.1" are considered the same product for the purpose of this question

  • If this does not occur on or before December 31, 2035, this question will resolve as >December 31, 2035

Note: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.