65 forecasters

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Current estimate

1334 hours

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2021

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Why All the Buzz About AGI? And What Is It Anyway?

Bloomberg•Oct 23, 2025

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