Question
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
Total Forecasters64
Community Prediction
1376 hours
(268 hours - 5862 hours)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 268.1 | — |
| median | 1376 | — |
| upper 75% | 5862 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10k | 16.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021