19 comments
65 forecasters
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
Current estimate
1289 hours
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021
