Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

US Building Permits August 2021

Trade Signal Tournament

Question

Building permits are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.

Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:

MQL5

Trading Economics

FXstreet

MarketsInsider

What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?

Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of August. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.

Historical data can be found here.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site