Question
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
Total Forecasters140
Community Prediction
08 Apr 2027
(31 Jul 2025 - 07 Nov 2029)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 31 Jul 2025 | — |
| median | 08 Apr 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 07 Nov 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2081 | 0.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 20, 2021
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.5
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
16 Oct 2025
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Dec 2030
Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 20, 2021
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.5
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
16 Oct 2025
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Dec 2030