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Deadly US/China Clash before 2024

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Question

Beginning with China's entry to the nuclear club in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's naval power in the South China Sea and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a trade war in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump.

Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China cold war, or military conflict in the South China Sea.

Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Chinese armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.

For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.

At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.

The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the US and China.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

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