7 comments
55 forecasters
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25% chance
499
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
64 forecasters
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
2.5% chance
61