Question
Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters202
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
95.1
Community Peer Score
3.4
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%