11 comments
29 forecasters
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
Current estimate
0.366%
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
0.51%
(0.0189 - 0.982)
0.51%
(0.0189 - 0.982)
29 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
0.286%
(0.0713 - 0.876)
0.286%
(0.0713 - 0.876)
33 forecasters
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.226%
(0.0632 - 0.469)
0.226%
(0.0632 - 0.469)
20 forecasters