Question
How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
Resolved:12.512kTotal Forecasters119
Community Prediction
12.7k
(12.1k - 13.3k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0 | 0.5% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 12.09k | — |
| median | 12.67k | — |
| upper 75% | 13.32k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50k | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?12.512k
Community Baseline Score
149.6
Community Peer Score
15.0
Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 23, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 23, 2021
