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Deadly US/Russia Clash before 2024

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Question

The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.

"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces."

Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.

For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.

At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.

The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the US and Russia.

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