Question

Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Kim Jong-un

United States

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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