Question

Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved:No
6
4
Total Forecasters127
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
2.0
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
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