Question
Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters132
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
97.1
Community Peer Score
1.7
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10%
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3%