46 comments
149 forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
Current estimate
1.1 weapons
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2055
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
64 forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25% chance
499
How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?
10.4k weapons
(6965 - 17.4k)
10.4k weapons
(6965 - 17.4k)
17 forecasters