Question
How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?
Resolved:3804Total Forecasters71
Community Prediction
3880
(3612 - 4256)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 3612 | — |
| median | 3880 | — |
| upper 75% | 4256 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15k | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?3804
Community Baseline Score
125.8
Community Peer Score
16.4
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
