27 comments
107 forecasters
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.1 weapons
(<1 - 7.56)
1.1 weapons
(<1 - 7.56)
149 forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
64 forecasters
Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
80% chance
66