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# Countries Increase Nuclear Arsenal by 10%

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament

Question

Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to the Federation of American Scientists).

  • Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads
  • US: 5,550 nuclear warheads
  • China: 350 nuclear warheads
  • France: 290 nuclear warheads
  • UK: 225 nuclear warheads
  • Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads
  • India: 160 nuclear warheads
  • Israel: 90 nuclear warheads
  • North Korea: Estimated at 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads ("The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower")

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

This question will resolve as the number of countries that increased the size of their nuclear arsenal by at least 10% as of the most recent Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates available on December 31, 2023, compared to the numbers shown above. This could include a country that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gaining an arsenal of at least one nuclear weapon. In the case of North Korea, the "size of their nuclear arsenal" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.

Resolution will come from the Federation of American Scientists, or other similar, reputable sources that report on the number of nuclear weapons possessed by each country.

If information can not be found, then resolution will be determined by a resolution council or by Metaculus admins.

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