Question
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
Resolved:2Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction
1.92
(1.16 - 2.4)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 1.158 | — |
| median | 1.922 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.398 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20 | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?2
Community Baseline Score
108.0
Community Peer Score
20.4
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
