29 forecasters

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

Current estimate

0.51%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners MichaelA

Opened:

Aug 21, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2021

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