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    100 deaths from Taiwan conflict before 2026

    Created by Charles on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Charles on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China invading Taiwan is "growing every day". This question asks if there will be conflict causing 100 deaths between the two nations by the end of 2025.

    Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?

    This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2026:

    • There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.
    • There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.

    Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.

    This question resolves negatively otherwise.

    In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.

    Categories:
    Geopolitics
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