181 forecasters

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

78%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 18, 2021

The Taiwan Tinderbox

21,000 American casualties, millions of civilians trapped, and the world on the brink of war: The consequences for the U.S. if China takes a terrifying step towards global domination

Daily Mail•Sep 2, 2025

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