Question

Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?

Resolved:Yes
32
155
Total Forecasters286
Community Prediction
99%
(96% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-0.3
Community Peer Score
0.5
Authors:
stanulamstan
Opened:Oct 3, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Resolves:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 5, 2021
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics