15 comments
87 forecasters
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49%chance
Authors:
Opened:Sep 29, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 1, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
70% chance
140
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
1% chance
293
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?
75% chance
181