Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of counterforce targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of countervalue targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to nuclear winter effects; see also Rodriguez, 2019).
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