Question

Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?

Resolved:Yes

24 comments24

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction

60%

(59% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

32.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Feb 1, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

After the smoke clears, a wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

The Conversation•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

8.31

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

32%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Feb 1, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

After the smoke clears, a wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

The Conversation•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

8.31

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

32%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%