Question

Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?

Resolved:No
Total Forecasters131
Community Prediction
1%
(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
25.5
Community Peer Score
9.2
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021