133 forecasters

Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

4%chance

4%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 4% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

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