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India have 200+ nuclear warheads by 2024

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Question

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

As of May 2021, the Federation of American Scientists estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.

Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.

Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.

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