• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
13 comments
191 forecasters

Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

0.1%chance
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Associated Press logo
Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO
Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025
Bloomberg logo
What to Know About NATO, Russia and Articles 4 & 5
Bloomberg•Sep 11, 2025
USA Today logo
NATO Articles 4 and 5: could Ukraine war trigger alliance defense obligations?
USA Today•Sep 10, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

12.5% chance
120

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

64.8% chance
31

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

7% chance
93
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature